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How Climate Change Could Reshape the U.S. Economy

Climate change isn’t just a far-off environmental issue anymore — it’s rapidly becoming an economic one. While hurricanes, wildfires, and heatwaves often dominate the headlines, the quieter impact on regional economies is already underway. And by the end of this century, it could dramatically reshape which parts of the U.S. thrive and which struggle to stay afloat.
 
A research team led by Solomon Hsiang, Robert Kopp, Amir Jina, and others from institutions like the University of California, Berkeley and the University of Chicago created a county-level projection of total economic damage in the U.S. as a percentage of local GDP, based on continued high greenhouse gas emissions. The map below offers a detailed look at where those losses could be concentrated.

On the map above, each county is colored based on how much of its economy is projected to be lost — or in some rare cases, gained — by the years 2080 to 2099. Southern states such as Florida, Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia show the highest projected losses, in some cases over 25% of local GDP.

In contrast, some counties in the Pacific Northwest, northern Midwest, and parts of New England may see a small economic gain — in the range of 5–13% — due to milder winters, reduced energy costs, and longer agricultural growing seasons.

The contrast is sharp and geographic. Warmer areas, which already face extreme heat and weather volatility, are set to lose the most, while cooler regions could temporarily benefit.

What’s Driving These Losses?

The model used by the researchers incorporates multiple climate-linked factors that affect local economies:
  • Mortality and labor productivity: Rising temperatures increase heat-related deaths and reduce outdoor labor productivity, particularly in construction, agriculture, and manufacturing.
  • Energy costs: Warmer areas will see spikes in electricity use for air conditioning.
  • Agricultural yields: Crop losses due to heat stress and changing precipitation patterns are major contributors.
  • Coastal storm damages: Sea level rise increases exposure to storm surges and flood risks, especially along the Gulf and Southeastern coasts.
This study was part of a larger effort by the Climate Impact Lab to connect climate science with local economic data in a way that policymakers, communities, and businesses can use.

The South: Hit Hardest

The economic risks of climate change are not evenly distributed. Low-income counties in the South, which are often less equipped to adapt to major disruptions, are the most vulnerable. This unequal distribution of risk adds to existing disparities in income, infrastructure, and access to healthcare.

According to the same Science study, climate damages in the poorest third of U.S. counties could average more than 10% of GDP, while the richest third may see losses closer to 1%.

This is an example of what economists call a "regressive" impact: those with the least suffer the most. It’s a reminder that climate adaptation isn’t just about emissions — it’s about equity, too.

Some Places May Benefit — But Only Slightly

Northern states such as Minnesota, Maine, and parts of the Pacific Northwest show potential gains, largely due to reduced heating costs and increased crop productivity from longer growing seasons. But even in those cases, the margin is narrow. And long-term benefits may evaporate as climate impacts become more extreme globally, disrupting supply chains and migration patterns.

In short: no region is completely safe. The goal isn’t just to adapt — it’s to prevent the worst-case outcomes by rapidly cutting emissions and building resilience.

What Can Be Done?

This map is based on a high-emissions trajectory — essentially, what happens if the world keeps burning fossil fuels at current rates. But these outcomes aren’t set in stone.

Aggressive action to cut emissions can drastically reduce the expected damage. According to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, keeping warming closer to 1.5°C rather than 3–4°C would prevent many of the most severe outcomes projected in this map.

And at the local level, governments can begin investing in climate resilience — from green infrastructure and flood defenses to heat-resistant crops and updated building codes.

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