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Warmer Fall Weather Across America

I keep waiting for that crisp fall morning, and it just doesn't come like it used to. Climate Central just released numbers showing I'm not imagining this - every US county has warmer falls now than in 1970.

The average increase is 2.8°F (1.6°C) across 237 cities. Some places got hit harder than others. Reno went up 7.7°F (4.3°C). El Paso jumped 6.5°F (3.6°C). Las Vegas is 6.2°F (3.4°C) warmer. The Southwest overall increased 4.0°F (2.2°C), with the Northern Rockies and Plains close behind at 3.5°F (1.9°C). Even the Southeast, with the smallest changes, still warmed 1.9°F (1.1°C) everywhere.

Change in Average Fall Temperature by U.S. County (1970-2024)

An interactive version of this map can be found here.

Trees Don't Know When to Drop Their Leaves

This temperature shift messes with nature's timing. Trees hold leaves 6-10 days longer now, according to the USA National Phenology Network. The real problem comes in spring - warmer temperatures cause insects and plants to emerge earlier, but many migratory birds still arrive based on daylight cues. By the time they reach breeding grounds, peak insect abundance may have already passed..

Research in Nature found this spring timing mismatch reduces breeding success when birds miss the peak food period needed for raising chicks.

Forest health is getting worse too. The U.S. Forest Service tracks how trees that don't get cold enough dormancy periods become vulnerable to diseases and pests. Mountain pine beetles now survive in places that used to freeze them out.

Bees and butterflies face similar problems. They come out of hibernation expecting certain flowers, but warmer weather shifts when plants bloom.


How This Affects Your Body

Sleeping gets harder when nights stay warm later in the year.  Shelby Harris, PsyD, a licensed psychologist, says we sleep best in cool rooms - 60-67°F (15.6-19.4°C). When October feels like August, your bedroom becomes a problem.

Your heart works harder during unexpected heat waves too. 

Air quality gets worse with more heat. The EPA tracks this - ground-level ozone increases with temperature, and we're getting more bad air days extending into fall.

Harvard researchers also found people feel mentally "off" when seasons don't match expectations. Your body expects certain temperature drops that just aren't happening anymore.

Simple Changes That Help

Keep Your House Cool

You'll need fans and air conditioning later into fall now. The Department of Energy recommends thermal curtains and window film to block heat during those unexpected warm October days.

Set your programmable thermostat for longer cooling seasons. It's better than cranking the AC when you're caught off guard by 80-degree October weather.

Protect Your Sleep

Get a cooling mattress pad if you don't have one. The National Sleep Foundation has guides for keeping bedrooms cool when outside temperatures don't cooperate.

Blackout curtains help block heat during the day so your bedroom stays cooler at night.

Stay Healthy

Keep drinking water later in the year. The CDC's heat guidelines now extend through October in many places because of these temperature changes.

Check NOAA weather forecasts more often in fall - you might need to move outdoor activities to early morning when it's cooler.

Help Your Local Environment

Plant native species that bloom across longer seasons. The National Wildlife Federation has lists of plants that support wildlife during these timing disruptions.

Use mulch and drip irrigation to help plants handle longer dry spells. Higher temperatures mean more water evaporates from soil.

The numbers in this post come from Climate Central using NOAA's nClimDiv dataset - the most complete county temperature records available.

These changes are probably going to continue, so adapting now makes sense. Small adjustments to how we cool our homes, plan activities, and support local plants can make a real difference.

Has October weather changed where you live? Let me know what you're seeing - different places seem to be handling this shift in their own ways.

Products That Can Help

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