How Many New Mines Are Needed for the Energy Transition?

Switching to renewable energy and electric vehicles sounds like a great plan—until you realize just how many raw materials are needed to make it happen. From lithium for EV batteries to rare earth elements for wind turbines, the energy transition depends on massive amounts of minerals. In a world moving away from fossil fuels, securing these resources is one of the biggest challenges. But where will all these materials come from? And how many new mines will we need to keep up with demand? According to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence, we’ll need nearly 300 new mines and plants by 2030 just to meet the growing demand for batteries, solar panels, and wind turbines. 

The Breakdown: What Do We Need? 

Here’s a look at the additional supply required and how many new mining operations must be developed by 2030:

Mineral	Extra Supply Needed (tons)	New Mines/Plants Required
Lithium	1,547,000	52 mines
Cobalt	129,000	26 mines
Nickel	1,383,000	28 mines
Natural Graphite	1,708,000	31 mines
Synthetic Graphite	356,000	12 plants
Manganese	319,000	21 plants
Purified Phosphoric Acid	2,508,000	33 plants
Copper	3,664,000	61 mines
Rare Earths	32,952	29 mines

The following visualization, created by VisualCapitalist, provides a clear look at how many new mines and plants will be required to meet the demand for key minerals by 2030.

Copper and lithium top the list, with 61 and 52 new mines needed, respectively. Manganese demand is set to quadruple, requiring a major ramp-up in production.

The Challenge of New Mines

Building new mines isn't a quick endeavor. In the U.S., for instance, it takes an average of 29 years for a mine to progress from discovery to production, ranking it second-longest globally, just behind Zambia. 

This lengthy timeline encompasses exploration, permitting, funding, and construction. In contrast, countries like Canada and Australia have shorter development times, averaging 27 and 20 years respectively. 

Given these challenges, companies are exploring alternative strategies. Revitalizing abandoned mines has emerged as a viable option to quickly boost supply. For example, in Canada, the Selkirk First Nation has taken over the Minto mine, aiming to restart operations and contribute to the copper supply chain. 

What Does This Mean for Us?

The path to a sustainable energy future is complex and requires more than just technological advancements; it demands significant infrastructural and industrial shifts. Understanding the journey from raw material extraction to the devices we use daily highlights the interconnectedness of our global economy and the environment.

Explore More

If you're interested in exploring this topic further, here are some insightful reads available on Amazon (please note that these links will direct you to Amazon's website):

• The Elements of Power: Gadgets, Guns, and the Struggle for a Sustainable Future in the Rare Metal Age by David S. Abraham
• The Rare Metals War: The Dark Side of Clean Energy and Digital Technologies by Guillaume Pitron
• Extracted: How the Quest for Mineral Wealth Is Plundering the Planet by Ugo Bardi

What do you think? Should we be mining more, or is there a better way forward? Drop a comment below—I’d love to hear your thoughts!