A World at Risk: Aggregating Development Trends to Forecast Global Habitat Conversion

Future global development threat
Individual sector development threat maps used to calculate the cumulative future development threat (bottom) identified by binning global lands (except Antarctica) into four equal-area categories with the “High” category defined as the quarter of the globe with the highest cumulative threat scores.

James R. Oakleaf , Christina M. Kennedy, Sharon Baruch-Mordo, Paul C. West, James S. Gerber, Larissa Jarvis, Joseph Kiesecker

Proportion of land currently converted and future conversion per geopolitical region, biome, and ecoregion
The proportion of land in each geopolitical region (A) and biome (B) that is currently converted (dark grey), the proportion of natural lands at high risk to development (light grey), total future conversion (dark grey + light grey), and the proportion of strictly-protected natural lands at risk (dashed lines indicate the 50% threshold). Distribution of terrestrial ecoregions with > 0.75, 0.50, 0.25, and < 0.25 proportion of converted lands under (C) current conversion and (D) potential future land conversion including high development risk areas.

James R. Oakleaf , Christina M. Kennedy, Sharon Baruch-Mordo, Paul C. West, James S. Gerber, Larissa Jarvis, Joseph Kiesecker

Ecoregions facing substantial change based on development risk to natural habitats
Distribution of ecoregions binned into four categories > 50, 25, 10, and < 10 percent displaying A) the potential percent change in conversion within an ecoregion from current to future and B) the percent natural habitat within an ecoregion at risk to future development.

James R. Oakleaf , Christina M. Kennedy, Sharon Baruch-Mordo, Paul C. West, James S. Gerber, Larissa Jarvis, Joseph Kiesecker

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