Skip to main content

Oceanic Circulation at Risk

New findings suggest that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), a critical ocean current system shaping global climate and weather patterns, could be at risk of collapsing sooner than previously anticipated. Scientists from the University of Copenhagen, Denmark, in a paper published on July 25, 2023, warn that the AMOC may cease to function between 2025 and 2095, primarily due to the impact of human-caused emissions. They predict a collapse as early as the 2050s, with a 95% confidence level, based on current emission rates, as reported in Nature Communications.

The AMOC's significance lies in its role in moderating Europe and North America's climates and influencing Equatorial temperatures. Its potential collapse could mark the first breach of the 16 identified climate tipping elements, large-scale systems crucial for the planet's climate and ecology. These elements, including the AMOC, are susceptible to irreversible changes if global temperatures exceed certain thresholds due to greenhouse gas accumulation.

A Slowing Conveyor Belt

The AMOC's mechanism involves transporting warm, salty surface waters from the tropics to the northern Atlantic, where they cool, become denser, and sink, creating a cycle of heat redistribution. However, increased freshwater from Arctic ice melt and higher precipitation is diluting the North Atlantic's salt content, reducing water density. This process, observed over the last few decades, is slowing down the AMOC and could ultimately lead to its collapse.

Recent studies have highlighted significant warning signs in the North Atlantic's Subpolar gyre region, near Greenland, Iceland, and Canada. Historical data reveals that AMOC collapses have been preceded by warming events, similar to the Dansgaard-Oeschger events that signaled the end of ice ages.

Current research indicates that the AMOC has already slowed by approximately 15% in the last few decades, its most sluggish pace in 1,600 years. The system's stability has also been questioned, with suggestions that it may be closer to collapse than previously thought, potentially transitioning to a weaker state in just a few decades.

Climate Ramifications

A collapsed AMOC could trigger widespread cooling in the northern hemisphere and reduced precipitation in regions including Europe, North America, China, and parts of Russia. The untransported heat could remain in the tropics, potentially affecting other critical climate systems such as the Amazon rainforest, West Antarctic ice sheet, and monsoons in West Africa and India.

Collapse of Ocean currents mapped

Contrasting Views and Uncertainties

Despite these warnings, the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that a complete AMOC halt is unlikely to occur this century. The 2023 study underscores that earlier assessments might have underestimated the AMOC's vulnerability, citing model biases such as an overestimation of its stability and insufficient representation of key factors like cold deep-water currents and freshwater input from melting Arctic glaciers.

If you want to learn more about the ocean and its impact on our planet's life, we recommend paying attention to the following books.


Labels:

This post may contain affiliate links. As an Amazon Associate, I earn from qualifying purchases.


Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

Find cities with similar climate

This map has been created using The Global environmental stratification. The Global environmental stratification (GEnS), based on statistical clustering of bioclimate data (WorldClim). GEnS, consists of 125 strata, which have been aggregated into 18 global environmental zones (labeled A to R) based on the dendrogram. Interactive map >> Via www.vividmaps.com Related posts: -  Find cities with similar climate 2050 -  How global warming will impact 6000+ cities around the world?
Read more

Moose population in North America

The moose population in North America is shrinking swiftly. This decrease has been correlated to the opening of roadways and landscapes into this animal's north range.   In North America, the moose range includes almost all of Canada and Alaska, the northern part of New England and New York, the upper Rocky Mountains, northern Minnesota and Wisconsin, Michigan's Upper Peninsula, and Isle Royale.    In 2014-2015, the North American moose population was measured at around one million animals. The most abundant moose population (about 700,000) lives in Canada. About 300 000 moose remains in nineteen U.S. states Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Idaho, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Montana, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New York, North Dakota, Oregon, Utah, Vermont, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. The largest moose specimens are found in Alaska 200 thousand moose. Below the map shows the size of US states scaled by the moose population.     Via www.vividmaps.com
Read more

Human Emotions Visualized

Despite significant diversity in the culture around the globe, humanity's DNA is 99.9 percent alike. There are some characteristics more primary and typical to the human experience than our emotions. Of course, the large spectrum of emotions we can feel can be challenging to verbalize. That's where this splendid visualization by the Junto Institute comes in. This visualization is the newest in an ongoing attempt to categorize the full range of emotions logically. Our knowledge has come a long route since William James suggested 4 primary emotions: fear, grief, love, and rage. These kernel emotions yet form much of the basis for current frameworks. The Junto Institute's visualization above classifies 6 basic emotions: fear, anger, sadness, surprise, joy, love More nuanced descriptions begin from these 6 primary emotions, such as jealousy as a subset of anger and awe-struck as a subset of surprise. As a result, there are 102 second-and third-order emotions placed on this emo
Post a Comment
Read more