Global Temperature Rise by Country (2022-2100)

Numerous scientific bodies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), frequently emphasize the imperative of restricting planetary warming to a maximum of 2°C above pre-industrial levels.

However, it's crucial to recognize that this temperature increase won't unfold uniformly across the world, owing to variables like geography, weather patterns, ocean currents, and the impact of human actions.

To unveil the present and anticipated intricacies of this disparate warming, the following three maps, developed collaboratively with the National Public Utilities Council and employing the latest data from Berkeley Earth, visually depict the projected global temperature elevation on a country-by-country basis.

Current status of climate change

The map presented below, created by the VisualCapitalist team, illustrates temperature increases relative to the average temperatures of each country during the period 1850-1900.

Examining the warming trends in 2022, we observe that the average national warming (excluding oceans) has already surpassed those historical figures by 1.81°C. Notably, Mongolia has experienced the most substantial warming at 2.54°C, while Bangladesh has witnessed the least at 1.1°C.

The map vividly demonstrates that warming is generally more pronounced in the Global North, a phenomenon attributed in part to Arctic amplification.

Arctic amplification denotes the disproportionate warming occurring in the Arctic compared to the rest of the planet. This amplification is propelled by various feedback loops, including the reduction of albedo as ice cover diminishes. This reduction in albedo leads to increased heat absorption, further intensifying the warming effect.

Projected Climate Change in 2050 and 2100

The following maps illustrate country-level projections for warming in 2050 and 2100.

These projections are derived from the IPCC's "middle-of-the-road" scenario, known as Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 2-4.5. Among the different pathways outlined, this scenario aligns most closely with the anticipated emissions under existing policies.

2050 Projections

Under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, the anticipated average national warming in 2050 is projected to reach 2.75°C above the average temperatures recorded during 1850-1900. This projection encompasses varying degrees of warming, with Mongolia experiencing the most substantial increase at 3.76°C and New Zealand undergoing the mildest warming at 2.02°C.

To provide perspective on these temperatures, consider the potential risks associated with them, as outlined in the IPCC's latest assessment report:

• Increased Frequency and Intensity of Extreme Weather Events:
  Expect more frequent and intense extreme weather events, including heavy precipitation, associated flooding, and cyclones.
• High Risks of Biodiversity Loss in Various Ecosystems:
  Nearly all ecosystems, encompassing terrestrial, freshwater, coastal, and marine ecosystems, will face elevated risks of biodiversity loss.
• Threat of Accelerated Sea Level Rise:
  Coastal cities will be at risk due to accelerated sea level rise, potentially leading to mass displacement of populations.

2100 Projections

In the 2100 projections under the SSP2-4.5 scenario, there is a forecasted average national warming of 3.80°C.

Across the globe, more than 55 countries are anticipated to experience warming surpassing 4°C compared to their 1850-1900 averages, while nearly 100 countries are expected to exceed 3.5°C.

Consider the potential implications of such warming levels, as outlined by the IPCC:

• Extensive Species Endangerment:
  Between 3% to 39% of terrestrial species will face very high risks of extinction.
• Significant Water Scarcity Impact:
  Cities, farms, and hydro plants will face considerable impacts from water scarcity. Additionally, about 10% of the world's land area will witness both exceptionally high and exceptionally low river flows.
• Threats to Global Food Production:
  Droughts, floods, and heatwaves will pose substantial threats to global food production and accessibility. This could lead to the erosion of food security and have a significant impact on nutritional stability at a global scale.
• Catastrophic Risks to Humanity:
  Warming at this level is expected to pose substantial catastrophic risks to humanity, emphasizing the urgent need for swift and bold climate action.

If you’re interested in learning more about climate change, consider the following books:

• How to Avoid a Climate Disaster: The Solutions We Have and the Breakthroughs We Need
• The Physics of Climate Change